SAS vs COM
Sassuolo (home) vs Como · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 27.1% fair 3.69
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
COM win 49.3% fair 2.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.0% / 23.1% / 51.9%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.18
—
1.80
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 COM | 10.8% | |
| SAS 1-2 COM | 9.7% | |
| SAS 0-1 COM | 9.1% | |
| SAS 0-2 COM | 8.2% | |
| SAS 2-1 COM | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).