SAS vs FIO
Sassuolo (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 49.1% fair 2.04
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
FIO win 27.4% fair 3.65
Expected Goals
SAS
1.81
—
1.27
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 FIO | 10.6% | |
| SAS 2-1 FIO | 9.6% | |
| SAS 1-0 FIO | 8.3% | |
| SAS 2-0 FIO | 7.5% | |
| SAS 1-2 FIO | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).