SAS vs FIO
Sassuolo (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SAS win 47.3% fair 2.11
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
FIO win 27.9% fair 3.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.2% / 24.4% / 27.4%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.64
—
1.18
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 FIO | 11.5% | |
| SAS 1-0 FIO | 9.8% | |
| SAS 2-1 FIO | 9.5% | |
| SAS 2-0 FIO | 8.0% | |
| SAS 0-1 FIO | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).