SAS vs FRO
Sassuolo (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 48.1% fair 2.08
Draw 23.2% fair 4.30
FRO win 28.7% fair 3.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.2% / 22.5% / 28.3%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.87
—
1.37
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 FRO | 10.0% | |
| SAS 2-1 FRO | 9.4% | |
| SAS 1-0 FRO | 7.3% | |
| SAS 1-2 FRO | 6.9% | |
| SAS 2-0 FRO | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).