SAS vs GEN
Sassuolo (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 48.1% fair 2.08
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
GEN win 27.4% fair 3.64
Expected Goals
SAS
1.68
—
1.19
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 GEN | 11.3% | |
| SAS 1-0 GEN | 9.5% | |
| SAS 2-1 GEN | 9.5% | |
| SAS 2-0 GEN | 8.0% | |
| SAS 0-1 GEN | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).