SAS vs GEN
Sassuolo (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SAS win 46.6% fair 2.15
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
GEN win 28.3% fair 3.53
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.4% / 24.7% / 27.9%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.60
—
1.17
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 GEN | 11.7% | |
| SAS 1-0 GEN | 10.0% | |
| SAS 2-1 GEN | 9.4% | |
| SAS 2-0 GEN | 8.0% | |
| SAS 0-1 GEN | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).