SAS vs JUV
Sassuolo (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
SAS win 31.3% fair 3.19
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
JUV win 43.3% fair 2.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.7% / 25.1% / 45.2%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.21
—
1.55
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 JUV | 11.9% | |
| SAS 0-1 JUV | 9.9% | |
| SAS 1-2 JUV | 9.2% | |
| SAS 1-0 JUV | 7.7% | |
| SAS 0-2 JUV | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).