SAS vs LAZ
Sassuolo (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 33.4% fair 2.99
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
LAZ win 41.2% fair 2.43
Expected Goals
SAS
1.28
—
1.50
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 LAZ | 11.9% | |
| SAS 0-1 LAZ | 9.3% | |
| SAS 1-2 LAZ | 8.9% | |
| SAS 1-0 LAZ | 7.9% | |
| SAS 2-1 LAZ | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).