SAS vs LAZ
Sassuolo (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SAS win 38.9% fair 2.57
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
LAZ win 34.5% fair 2.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.4% / 26.5% / 35.1%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.32
—
1.25
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 LAZ | 12.6% | |
| SAS 1-0 LAZ | 10.1% | |
| SAS 0-1 LAZ | 9.5% | |
| SAS 2-1 LAZ | 8.3% | |
| SAS 1-2 LAZ | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).