SAS vs LEC
Sassuolo (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 49.4% fair 2.02
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
LEC win 26.4% fair 3.79
Expected Goals
SAS
1.72
—
1.16
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 LEC | 11.2% | |
| SAS 1-0 LEC | 9.7% | |
| SAS 2-1 LEC | 9.6% | |
| SAS 2-0 LEC | 8.3% | |
| SAS 0-1 LEC | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).