SAS vs MIL
Sassuolo (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
SAS win 32.3% fair 3.09
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
MIL win 42.3% fair 2.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.9% / 25.1% / 44.1%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.25
—
1.54
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 MIL | 11.9% | |
| SAS 0-1 MIL | 9.5% | |
| SAS 1-2 MIL | 9.1% | |
| SAS 1-0 MIL | 7.7% | |
| SAS 2-1 MIL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).