SAS vs MIL
Sassuolo (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-11 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.00
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SAS win 33.9% fair 2.95
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
MIL win 41.7% fair 2.40
Expected Goals
SAS
1.40
—
1.63
MIL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): SAS ×1.100 (matched 9), MIL ×0.995 (matched 10). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 MIL | 11.0% | |
| SAS 1-2 MIL | 9.0% | |
| SAS 0-1 MIL | 7.9% | |
| SAS 2-1 MIL | 7.7% | |
| SAS 1-0 MIL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).