SAS vs MON
Sassuolo (home) vs Monza · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 51.6% fair 1.94
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
MON win 25.9% fair 3.86
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.3% / 21.7% / 25.0%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.99
—
1.31
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.9% | fair 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 MON | 9.6% | |
| SAS 2-1 MON | 9.6% | |
| SAS 1-0 MON | 7.3% | |
| SAS 2-0 MON | 7.3% | |
| SAS 3-1 MON | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).