SAS vs NAP
Sassuolo (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
SAS win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
NAP win 46.1% fair 2.17
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.2% / 24.5% / 48.3%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.17
—
1.63
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 NAP | 11.6% | |
| SAS 0-1 NAP | 9.9% | |
| SAS 1-2 NAP | 9.5% | |
| SAS 0-2 NAP | 8.1% | |
| SAS 1-0 NAP | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).