SAS vs NAP
Sassuolo (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 29.2% fair 3.43
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
NAP win 46.9% fair 2.13
Expected Goals
SAS
1.25
—
1.73
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 NAP | 11.0% | |
| SAS 1-2 NAP | 9.5% | |
| SAS 0-1 NAP | 8.8% | |
| SAS 0-2 NAP | 7.6% | |
| SAS 2-1 NAP | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).