SAS vs PAR
Sassuolo (home) vs Parma · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SAS win 46.7% fair 2.14
Draw 26.8% fair 3.73
PAR win 26.5% fair 3.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.5% / 26.8% / 25.8%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.43
—
0.98
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-0 PAR | 12.9% | |
| SAS 1-1 PAR | 12.6% | |
| SAS 2-0 PAR | 9.2% | |
| SAS 0-0 PAR | 9.0% | |
| SAS 2-1 PAR | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).