SAS vs PAR
Sassuolo (home) vs Parma · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 49.7% fair 2.01
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
PAR win 24.9% fair 4.01
Expected Goals
SAS
1.58
—
1.01
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 PAR | 12.0% | |
| SAS 1-0 PAR | 11.9% | |
| SAS 2-1 PAR | 9.5% | |
| SAS 2-0 PAR | 9.4% | |
| SAS 0-1 PAR | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).