SAS vs TOR
Sassuolo (home) vs Torino · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SAS win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 23.7% fair 4.23
TOR win 27.2% fair 3.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.4% / 23.1% / 26.5%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.80
—
1.25
TOR
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 TOR | 10.6% | |
| SAS 2-1 TOR | 9.6% | |
| SAS 1-0 TOR | 8.5% | |
| SAS 2-0 TOR | 7.7% | |
| SAS 1-2 TOR | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: TOR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).