SAS vs UDI
Sassuolo (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 46.8% fair 2.14
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
UDI win 29.5% fair 3.39
Expected Goals
SAS
1.77
—
1.35
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 UDI | 10.6% | |
| SAS 2-1 UDI | 9.3% | |
| SAS 1-0 UDI | 7.9% | |
| SAS 1-2 UDI | 7.1% | |
| SAS 2-0 UDI | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).