SAS vs VEN
Sassuolo (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SAS win 54.7% fair 1.83
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
VEN win 22.9% fair 4.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.0% / 21.6% / 21.4%.
Expected Goals
SAS
1.98
—
1.13
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| SAS 1-1 VEN | 10.0% | |
| SAS 2-1 VEN | 9.9% | |
| SAS 1-0 VEN | 8.8% | |
| SAS 2-0 VEN | 8.7% | |
| SAS 3-1 VEN | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SAS goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).