TOR vs ATA
Torino (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 34.5% fair 2.90
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
ATA win 41.6% fair 2.41
Expected Goals
TOR
1.46
—
1.67
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.5% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 ATA | 10.7% | |
| TOR 1-2 ATA | 8.9% | |
| TOR 2-1 ATA | 7.8% | |
| TOR 0-1 ATA | 7.3% | |
| TOR 2-2 ATA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).