TOR vs BOL
Torino (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 37.3% fair 2.68
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
BOL win 37.5% fair 2.67
Expected Goals
TOR
1.41
—
1.45
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 BOL | 11.7% | |
| TOR 1-2 BOL | 8.5% | |
| TOR 0-1 BOL | 8.3% | |
| TOR 2-1 BOL | 8.3% | |
| TOR 1-0 BOL | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).