TOR vs CAG
Torino (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 44.7% fair 2.24
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
CAG win 30.0% fair 3.34
Expected Goals
TOR
1.54
—
1.21
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 CAG | 11.9% | |
| TOR 1-0 CAG | 9.9% | |
| TOR 2-1 CAG | 9.2% | |
| TOR 0-1 CAG | 7.7% | |
| TOR 2-0 CAG | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).