TOR vs COM
Torino (home) vs Como · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
TOR win 25.6% fair 3.90
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
COM win 51.3% fair 1.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.6% / 22.4% / 55.0%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.13
—
1.89
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 COM | 10.4% | |
| TOR 1-2 COM | 9.8% | |
| TOR 0-1 COM | 9.2% | |
| TOR 0-2 COM | 8.7% | |
| TOR 1-3 COM | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).