TOR vs COM
Torino (home) vs Como · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 26.3% fair 3.80
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
COM win 50.3% fair 1.99
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.1% / 22.9% / 52.9%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.16
—
1.83
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 COM | 10.7% | |
| TOR 1-2 COM | 9.8% | |
| TOR 0-1 COM | 9.2% | |
| TOR 0-2 COM | 8.4% | |
| TOR 2-1 COM | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).