TOR vs FIO
Torino (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 48.1% fair 2.08
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
FIO win 28.2% fair 3.54
Expected Goals
TOR
1.77
—
1.29
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 FIO | 10.7% | |
| TOR 2-1 FIO | 9.5% | |
| TOR 1-0 FIO | 8.3% | |
| TOR 2-0 FIO | 7.4% | |
| TOR 1-2 FIO | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).