TOR vs FRO
Torino (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 48.0% fair 2.08
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
FRO win 28.3% fair 3.53
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.1% / 23.0% / 27.9%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.81
—
1.31
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 FRO | 10.5% | |
| TOR 2-1 FRO | 9.5% | |
| TOR 1-0 FRO | 8.0% | |
| TOR 2-0 FRO | 7.2% | |
| TOR 1-2 FRO | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).