TOR vs GEN
Torino (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 47.2% fair 2.12
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
GEN win 28.2% fair 3.54
Expected Goals
TOR
1.65
—
1.21
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 GEN | 11.4% | |
| TOR 1-0 GEN | 9.5% | |
| TOR 2-1 GEN | 9.4% | |
| TOR 2-0 GEN | 7.8% | |
| TOR 0-1 GEN | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).