TOR vs JUV
Torino (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 30.1% fair 3.32
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
JUV win 45.4% fair 2.20
Expected Goals
TOR
1.24
—
1.66
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 JUV | 11.3% | |
| TOR 1-2 JUV | 9.4% | |
| TOR 0-1 JUV | 9.1% | |
| TOR 0-2 JUV | 7.6% | |
| TOR 2-1 JUV | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).