TOR vs LAZ
Torino (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 32.6% fair 3.07
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
LAZ win 42.1% fair 2.37
Expected Goals
TOR
1.26
—
1.53
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 LAZ | 11.9% | |
| TOR 0-1 LAZ | 9.4% | |
| TOR 1-2 LAZ | 9.0% | |
| TOR 1-0 LAZ | 7.8% | |
| TOR 2-1 LAZ | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).