TOR vs LAZ
Torino (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
TOR win 34.4% fair 2.91
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
LAZ win 39.7% fair 2.52
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.2% / 25.7% / 41.1%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.26
—
1.43
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 LAZ | 12.2% | |
| TOR 0-1 LAZ | 9.7% | |
| TOR 1-2 LAZ | 8.8% | |
| TOR 1-0 LAZ | 8.5% | |
| TOR 2-1 LAZ | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).