TOR vs LEC
Torino (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
TOR win 43.3% fair 2.31
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
LEC win 30.6% fair 3.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.5% / 25.9% / 30.5%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.45
—
1.17
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 LEC | 12.3% | |
| TOR 1-0 LEC | 10.5% | |
| TOR 2-1 LEC | 9.0% | |
| TOR 0-1 LEC | 8.5% | |
| TOR 2-0 LEC | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).