TOR vs LEC
Torino (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 49.2% fair 2.03
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
LEC win 26.1% fair 3.83
Expected Goals
TOR
1.66
—
1.11
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 LEC | 11.5% | |
| TOR 1-0 LEC | 10.4% | |
| TOR 2-1 LEC | 9.6% | |
| TOR 2-0 LEC | 8.6% | |
| TOR 0-1 LEC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).