TOR vs MIL
Torino (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
TOR win 27.9% fair 3.59
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
MIL win 48.2% fair 2.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.7% / 23.5% / 50.8%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.19
—
1.76
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 MIL | 11.0% | |
| TOR 1-2 MIL | 9.6% | |
| TOR 0-1 MIL | 9.2% | |
| TOR 0-2 MIL | 8.1% | |
| TOR 2-1 MIL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).