TOR vs MIL
Torino (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 1-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
TOR win 28.4% fair 3.52
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
MIL win 47.5% fair 2.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.3% / 23.6% / 50.1%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.20
—
1.74
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 MIL | 11.0% | |
| TOR 1-2 MIL | 9.6% | |
| TOR 0-1 MIL | 9.2% | |
| TOR 0-2 MIL | 8.0% | |
| TOR 2-1 MIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).