TOR vs MON
Torino (home) vs Monza · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
TOR win 47.8% fair 2.09
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
MON win 27.9% fair 3.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.2% / 23.7% / 27.1%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.73
—
1.23
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 MON | 11.0% | |
| TOR 2-1 MON | 9.5% | |
| TOR 1-0 MON | 9.0% | |
| TOR 2-0 MON | 7.8% | |
| TOR 1-2 MON | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).