TOR vs NAP
Torino (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 28.3% fair 3.53
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
NAP win 47.8% fair 2.09
Expected Goals
TOR
1.23
—
1.76
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 NAP | 10.9% | |
| TOR 1-2 NAP | 9.6% | |
| TOR 0-1 NAP | 8.9% | |
| TOR 0-2 NAP | 7.8% | |
| TOR 2-1 NAP | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).