TOR vs PAR
Torino (home) vs Parma · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 48.8% fair 2.05
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
PAR win 25.6% fair 3.90
Expected Goals
TOR
1.55
—
1.02
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 PAR | 12.1% | |
| TOR 1-0 PAR | 11.9% | |
| TOR 2-1 PAR | 9.4% | |
| TOR 2-0 PAR | 9.2% | |
| TOR 0-1 PAR | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).