TOR vs ROM
Torino (home) vs Roma · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (09-14 · FT 0-2 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
TOR win 21.9% fair 4.56
Draw 20.4% fair 4.89
ROM win 57.7% fair 1.73
Expected Goals
TOR
1.20
—
2.25
ROM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): TOR ×1.100 (matched 9), ROM ×1.100 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.1% | fair 3.02 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-2 ROM | 9.6% | |
| TOR 1-1 ROM | 8.6% | |
| TOR 0-2 ROM | 8.1% | |
| TOR 1-3 ROM | 7.2% | |
| TOR 0-1 ROM | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).