TOR vs ROM
Torino (home) vs Roma · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
TOR win 23.7% fair 4.22
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
ROM win 53.8% fair 1.86
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.1% / 21.9% / 57.0%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.10
—
1.95
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 ROM | 10.2% | |
| TOR 1-2 ROM | 9.9% | |
| TOR 0-1 ROM | 9.3% | |
| TOR 0-2 ROM | 9.0% | |
| TOR 1-3 ROM | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).