TOR vs SAS
Torino (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 43.3% fair 2.31
Draw 23.8% fair 4.21
SAS win 33.0% fair 3.03
Expected Goals
TOR
1.71
—
1.47
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 SAS | 10.4% | |
| TOR 2-1 SAS | 8.9% | |
| TOR 1-2 SAS | 7.7% | |
| TOR 1-0 SAS | 7.1% | |
| TOR 2-2 SAS | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).