TOR vs UDI
Torino (home) vs Udinese · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
TOR win 36.6% fair 2.74
Draw 25.0% fair 3.99
UDI win 38.4% fair 2.60
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.6% / 24.7% / 39.6%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.41
—
1.50
UDI
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 UDI | 11.5% | |
| TOR 1-2 UDI | 8.6% | |
| TOR 0-1 UDI | 8.2% | |
| TOR 2-1 UDI | 8.1% | |
| TOR 1-0 UDI | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: UDI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).