TOR vs VEN
Torino (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOR win 54.4% fair 1.84
Draw 22.9% fair 4.37
VEN win 22.7% fair 4.41
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.7% / 22.1% / 21.1%.
Expected Goals
TOR
1.91
—
1.08
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.4% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOR 1-1 VEN | 10.4% | |
| TOR 2-1 VEN | 9.9% | |
| TOR 1-0 VEN | 9.6% | |
| TOR 2-0 VEN | 9.1% | |
| TOR 3-1 VEN | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOR goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).