UDI vs ATA
Udinese (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 32.8% fair 3.05
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
ATA win 43.1% fair 2.32
Expected Goals
UDI
1.38
—
1.67
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.2% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 ATA | 10.9% | |
| UDI 1-2 ATA | 9.1% | |
| UDI 0-1 ATA | 7.9% | |
| UDI 2-1 ATA | 7.5% | |
| UDI 0-2 ATA | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).