UDI vs BOL
Udinese (home) vs Bologna · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 35.5% fair 2.82
Draw 25.5% fair 3.92
BOL win 39.0% fair 2.57
Expected Goals
UDI
1.33
—
1.45
BOL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 BOL | 12.0% | |
| UDI 0-1 BOL | 9.0% | |
| UDI 1-2 BOL | 8.7% | |
| UDI 1-0 BOL | 8.3% | |
| UDI 2-1 BOL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: BOL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).