UDI vs CAG
Udinese (home) vs Cagliari · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
UDI win 46.7% fair 2.14
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
CAG win 27.9% fair 3.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.5% / 25.1% / 27.3%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.57
—
1.13
CAG
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 CAG | 11.9% | |
| UDI 1-0 CAG | 10.6% | |
| UDI 2-1 CAG | 9.4% | |
| UDI 2-0 CAG | 8.3% | |
| UDI 0-1 CAG | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: CAG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).