UDI vs COM
Udinese (home) vs Como · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
UDI win 31.2% fair 3.21
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
COM win 43.4% fair 2.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.2% / 25.2% / 45.6%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.19
—
1.55
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 COM | 11.9% | |
| UDI 0-1 COM | 10.0% | |
| UDI 1-2 COM | 9.2% | |
| UDI 0-2 COM | 7.8% | |
| UDI 1-0 COM | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).