UDI vs COM
Udinese (home) vs Como · model confidence 73% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 1-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
UDI win 30.9% fair 3.24
Draw 25.2% fair 3.98
COM win 44.0% fair 2.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.8% / 24.8% / 46.4%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.20
—
1.59
COM
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 COM | 11.7% | |
| UDI 0-1 COM | 9.8% | |
| UDI 1-2 COM | 9.3% | |
| UDI 0-2 COM | 7.8% | |
| UDI 1-0 COM | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: COM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).