UDI vs FIO
Udinese (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
UDI win 48.6% fair 2.06
Draw 24.9% fair 4.01
FIO win 26.5% fair 3.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.7% / 24.6% / 25.7%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.64
—
1.10
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 FIO | 11.7% | |
| UDI 1-0 FIO | 10.6% | |
| UDI 2-1 FIO | 9.5% | |
| UDI 2-0 FIO | 8.6% | |
| UDI 0-1 FIO | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).