UDI vs FIO
Udinese (home) vs Fiorentina · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 46.0% fair 2.17
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
FIO win 29.7% fair 3.37
Expected Goals
UDI
1.68
—
1.29
FIO
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 FIO | 11.1% | |
| UDI 2-1 FIO | 9.3% | |
| UDI 1-0 FIO | 8.6% | |
| UDI 2-0 FIO | 7.2% | |
| UDI 1-2 FIO | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: FIO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).