UDI vs FRO
Udinese (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 46.0% fair 2.17
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
FRO win 29.7% fair 3.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.8% / 23.7% / 29.5%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.71
—
1.31
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 FRO | 11.0% | |
| UDI 2-1 FRO | 9.3% | |
| UDI 1-0 FRO | 8.4% | |
| UDI 1-2 FRO | 7.2% | |
| UDI 2-0 FRO | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).