UDI vs FRO
Udinese (home) vs Frosinone · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
UDI win 54.0% fair 1.85
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
FRO win 21.9% fair 4.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.1% / 23.4% / 19.6%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.76
—
0.92
FRO
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-0 FRO | 12.1% | |
| UDI 1-1 FRO | 11.1% | |
| UDI 2-0 FRO | 10.6% | |
| UDI 2-1 FRO | 9.8% | |
| UDI 0-0 FRO | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: FRO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).