UDI vs GEN
Udinese (home) vs Genoa · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 45.2% fair 2.21
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
GEN win 29.6% fair 3.37
Expected Goals
UDI
1.56
—
1.21
GEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 GEN | 11.8% | |
| UDI 1-0 GEN | 9.8% | |
| UDI 2-1 GEN | 9.2% | |
| UDI 2-0 GEN | 7.7% | |
| UDI 0-1 GEN | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: GEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).