UDI vs JUV
Udinese (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 28.6% fair 3.50
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
JUV win 46.8% fair 2.14
Expected Goals
UDI
1.17
—
1.66
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 JUV | 11.5% | |
| UDI 0-1 JUV | 9.8% | |
| UDI 1-2 JUV | 9.5% | |
| UDI 0-2 JUV | 8.1% | |
| UDI 1-0 JUV | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).