UDI vs LAZ
Udinese (home) vs Lazio · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
UDI win 40.3% fair 2.48
Draw 27.0% fair 3.71
LAZ win 32.8% fair 3.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.0% / 26.9% / 33.1%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.32
—
1.18
LAZ
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 LAZ | 12.8% | |
| UDI 1-0 LAZ | 10.9% | |
| UDI 0-1 LAZ | 9.7% | |
| UDI 2-1 LAZ | 8.4% | |
| UDI 0-0 LAZ | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: LAZ goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).