UDI vs LEC
Udinese (home) vs Lecce · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
UDI win 49.0% fair 2.04
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
LEC win 24.9% fair 4.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.2% / 25.9% / 23.9%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.52
—
0.96
LEC
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-0 LEC | 12.7% | |
| UDI 1-1 LEC | 12.2% | |
| UDI 2-0 LEC | 9.7% | |
| UDI 2-1 LEC | 9.3% | |
| UDI 0-0 LEC | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: LEC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).