UDI vs MIL
Udinese (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 0-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.97
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
UDI win 26.1% fair 3.83
Draw 24.3% fair 4.11
MIL win 49.6% fair 2.02
Expected Goals
UDI
1.09
—
1.70
MIL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): UDI ×0.900 (matched 10), MIL ×0.971 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 MIL | 11.4% | |
| UDI 0-1 MIL | 10.4% | |
| UDI 1-2 MIL | 9.7% | |
| UDI 0-2 MIL | 8.9% | |
| UDI 1-0 MIL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).