UDI vs MON
Udinese (home) vs Monza · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 48.6% fair 2.06
Draw 23.3% fair 4.28
MON win 28.1% fair 3.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.7% / 22.7% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.85
—
1.33
MON
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 MON | 10.2% | |
| UDI 2-1 MON | 9.5% | |
| UDI 1-0 MON | 7.7% | |
| UDI 2-0 MON | 7.1% | |
| UDI 1-2 MON | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: MON goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).