UDI vs NAP
Udinese (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 26.9% fair 3.72
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
NAP win 49.3% fair 2.03
Expected Goals
UDI
1.16
—
1.76
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 NAP | 11.0% | |
| UDI 1-2 NAP | 9.7% | |
| UDI 0-1 NAP | 9.5% | |
| UDI 0-2 NAP | 8.3% | |
| UDI 2-1 NAP | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).