UDI vs PAR
Udinese (home) vs Parma · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 46.8% fair 2.14
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
PAR win 26.9% fair 3.72
Expected Goals
UDI
1.47
—
1.02
PAR
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 PAR | 12.4% | |
| UDI 1-0 PAR | 12.2% | |
| UDI 2-1 PAR | 9.1% | |
| UDI 2-0 PAR | 8.9% | |
| UDI 0-1 PAR | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: PAR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).