UDI vs ROM
Udinese (home) vs Roma · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
UDI win 29.3% fair 3.41
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
ROM win 45.5% fair 2.20
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.5% / 24.9% / 47.6%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.15
—
1.59
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 ROM | 11.8% | |
| UDI 0-1 ROM | 10.2% | |
| UDI 1-2 ROM | 9.4% | |
| UDI 0-2 ROM | 8.2% | |
| UDI 1-0 ROM | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).