UDI vs SAS
Udinese (home) vs Sassuolo · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 42.9% fair 2.33
Draw 23.7% fair 4.23
SAS win 33.4% fair 2.99
Expected Goals
UDI
1.72
—
1.50
SAS
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 SAS | 10.3% | |
| UDI 2-1 SAS | 8.9% | |
| UDI 1-2 SAS | 7.7% | |
| UDI 1-0 SAS | 6.9% | |
| UDI 2-2 SAS | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: SAS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).