UDI vs VEN
Udinese (home) vs Venezia · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
UDI win 52.4% fair 1.91
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
VEN win 23.9% fair 4.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.3% / 23.1% / 22.6%.
Expected Goals
UDI
1.81
—
1.08
VEN
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| UDI 1-1 VEN | 10.9% | |
| UDI 1-0 VEN | 10.0% | |
| UDI 2-1 VEN | 9.8% | |
| UDI 2-0 VEN | 9.1% | |
| UDI 0-1 VEN | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: UDI goals · Columns: VEN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).