VEN vs ATA
Venezia (home) vs Atalanta · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VEN win 25.2% fair 3.97
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
ATA win 51.4% fair 1.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.3% / 22.7% / 55.0%.
Expected Goals
VEN
1.09
—
1.85
ATA
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| VEN 1-1 ATA | 10.7% | |
| VEN 1-2 ATA | 9.9% | |
| VEN 0-1 ATA | 9.8% | |
| VEN 0-2 ATA | 9.0% | |
| VEN 1-3 ATA | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VEN goals · Columns: ATA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).